Energy

At USD 76.5 a barrel at the onset of 2025, Brent crude oil price, despite episodes of short-lived rises that resulted from sporadic geopolitical tensions, followed a downturn in general throughout the year owing to the demand growth that declined to the pre-pandemic average levels and the elimination of OPEC+ cuts, and ended the year at USD 62.6 a barrel. Although concerns sprouted on the part of supply during the year particularly because of the Israel-Iran war and the harsher sanctions imposed against Iran, Russia and Venezuela, these events did not have a permanent effect on prices.

While the US threats and decisions to impose major customs taxes on trade, primarily against China, raised global growth concerns, they also caused a fluctuation in oil consumption. In addition to that, the gradual lifting of the voluntary cut at the order of 2.2 million barrels a day by OPEC+ as decided in their meetings within the year increased supply in the face of weak demand conditions and reinforced the downward pressure on prices. To this backdrop, 2025 was molded by a downward price dynamic where global macroeconomic weakness and flexibility on the supply side have been telling.

Profitability of oil products, although they were lower on a year-on-year basis in the first half of the year, recovered markedly from mid-October and surpassed the previous year’s levels due to refinery capacity losses, stricter sanctions, seasonal demand increase and maintenance season.

According to the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA) data in December, the demand for gasoline and jet fuel in Turkey continued to grow by 16% in 2025 while diesel demand increased by 4%.