Developments in the banking sector
In 2025, gradual normalization of monetary policies was at the forefront in global economy with the ongoing recuperation of the inflation outlook. While central banks of developed countries cautiously sustained the rate cut cycle initiated in the second half of 2024, geopolitical risks, protectionist measures in international trade, and uncertainties regarding trade policies kept putting pressure on global growth. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s World Economic Outlook dated January 2026, global economic growth is estimated to be 3.3% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026. The deceleration in global growth will presumably pull worldwide inflation down to 4.1% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026.
In the Turkish economy, the lagged effects of the tight monetary policy implemented in 2024 became more discernible in 2025. As domestic demand continued to rebalance, the gradual downtrend of inflation also persisted. Despite the support from energy prices, the uncertainties in global trade policies and increasing gold demand constrained the improvement in foreign trade deficit. The strong performance of service revenues, on the other hand, continued to support the current accounts balance. The determined stance maintained in the monetary policy reflected positively on the reserve outlook and risk perception toward Turkey, resulting in continued improvement of the risk premium.
In the Turkish economy, the lagged effects of the tight monetary policy implemented in 2024 became more discernible in 2025. As domestic demand continued to rebalance, the gradual downtrend of inflation also persisted. Despite the support from energy prices, the uncertainties in global trade policies and increasing gold demand constrained the improvement in foreign trade deficit. The strong performance of service revenues, on the other hand, continued to support the current accounts balance. The determined stance maintained in the monetary policy reflected positively on the reserve outlook and risk perception toward Turkey, resulting in continued improvement of the risk premium.